Scouting Report
Matt Savoie holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Savoie wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Savoie 47.5% vs Cates 43.2% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Savoie 79.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 57.6%
Neutral zone
Savoie 63.1%
Result
Matt Savoie favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Savoie
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Savoie
Cates
Last 5: Savoie 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Savoie
1
0
Savoie
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Savoie
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Savoie
2
0
Savoie
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Savoie
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (66)
44.1% (2,786)
+1.4%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
42.9% (254)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
34.9% (373)
-12.7%
On power play, Savoie has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Savoie is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (63).
Savoie shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Savoie
Cates
Home
52.9% (34)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
38.3% (47)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Savoie
Cates
P1
40.7%
44.5%
P2
40.0%
43.7%
P3
50.0%
41.2%
OT
100.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
37.5%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Savoie
40.0%▼
44.4%
44.4%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Matt Savoie |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:38 | Neutral | Matt Savoie |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:13 | Offensive | Matt Savoie |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:21 | Defensive | Matt Savoie |