Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stajan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stajan 51.2% vs Carpenter 50.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stajan 50.6%
Defensive zone
Stajan 63.0%
Neutral zone
Stajan 61.4%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Stajan
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stajan
Carpenter
Last 5: Stajan 4-1 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
3
1
Stajan
Carpenter
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stajan
1
0
Stajan
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stajan
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (395)
48.4% (314)
+3.8%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
60.0% (5)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
57.0% (79)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Carpenter has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Stajan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (193).
Stajan shoots left. Carpenter is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Home / Away
Stajan
Carpenter
Home
50.8% (238)
55.8% (197)
Away
52.0% (244)
44.8% (201)
By Period
Stajan
Carpenter
P1
56.3%
48.3%
P2
48.8%
47.8%
P3
49.4%
54.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
59.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
51.5%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 13:12 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 18, 2018 | 3 | 19:45 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |