Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Beniers wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.8% vs Marner 42.5% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 53.5%
Defensive zone
Marner 50.8%
Neutral zone
Marner 53.3%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Beniers
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Beniers
Marner
Last 5: Beniers 2-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
2
Beniers
Marner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Marner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Marner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (862)
40.8% (316)
+7.5%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
40.0% (5)
+18.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
25.0% (12)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Beniers is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Beniers shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Beniers
Marner
Home
52.4% (460)
36.0% (186)
Away
45.1% (470)
45.6% (147)
By Period
Beniers
Marner
P1
47.5%
40.7%
P2
50.6%
41.0%
P3
47.6%
38.6%
Final 5 min
45.1%
41.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:34 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:43 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:17 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |