Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Beniers wins 44.1% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 46.6% vs Marner 42.7% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 53.9%
Defensive zone
Beniers 53.3%
Neutral zone
Beniers 51.5%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Beniers
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Beniers
Marner
Last 6: Beniers 3-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
2
Beniers
Marner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
Marner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Marner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (3,825)
41.7% (496)
+4.8%
Power Play
47.8% (360)
55.6% (18)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (111)
35.4% (65)
+6.0%
On power play, Marner has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Beniers is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,457).
Beniers shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Beniers
Marner
Home
48.9% (2,195)
38.0% (321)
Away
44.0% (2,101)
45.7% (258)
By Period
Beniers
Marner
P1
47.2%
38.7%
P2
47.0%
41.5%
P3
45.7%
45.5%
OT
34.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.5%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:34 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:43 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:17 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 02:14 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |