Matty Beniers vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Beniers wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.8% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.1%
Defensive zone
Beniers 54.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Beniers
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Beniers
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
0
Beniers
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Beniers
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (862)
49.7% (1,038)
-1.4%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
63.7% (157)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Beniers is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Beniers shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Beniers
MacKinnon
Home
52.4% (460)
53.1% (618)
Away
45.1% (470)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Beniers
MacKinnon
P1
47.5%
49.3%
P2
50.6%
53.0%
P3
47.6%
50.7%
OT
62.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |