Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.8% vs Cates 45.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 54.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 54.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 59.5%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Beniers
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Beniers
Cates
Last 9: Beniers 3-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Beniers
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Beniers
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (862)
45.5% (756)
+2.8%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
42.1% (114)
+16.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
44.7% (47)
+5.3%
On power play, Beniers has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Beniers is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (634).
Beniers shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Beniers
Cates
Home
52.4% (460)
46.2% (468)
Away
45.1% (470)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Beniers
Cates
P1
47.5%
46.0%
P2
50.6%
47.5%
P3
47.6%
42.1%
OT
62.5%
18.2%
Final 5 min
45.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 09:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Neutral | Noah Cates |