Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 46.6% vs Cates 43.2% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Beniers 52.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 62.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Beniers
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
12
(21 meetings)
9
12
Beniers
Cates
Last 10: Beniers 3-7 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
3
2
Beniers
Cates
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
5
Beniers
Cates
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
5
Beniers
Cates
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (3,825)
44.1% (2,786)
+2.4%
Power Play
47.8% (360)
42.9% (254)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (111)
34.9% (373)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,839).
Beniers shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Beniers
Cates
Home
48.9% (2,195)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
44.0% (2,101)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Beniers
Cates
P1
47.2%
44.5%
P2
47.0%
43.7%
P3
45.7%
41.2%
OT
34.8%
29.4%
Final 5 min
46.1%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.5%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 09:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:09 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |