Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.8% vs Aho 50.5% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 56.0%
Defensive zone
Beniers 74.5%
Neutral zone
Beniers 59.7%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Beniers
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Beniers
Aho
Last 9: Beniers 3-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
Beniers
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (862)
50.5% (878)
-2.2%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
53.5% (144)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
44.3% (61)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Beniers is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (634).
Beniers shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Beniers
Aho
Home
52.4% (460)
53.8% (571)
Away
45.1% (470)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Beniers
Aho
P1
47.5%
49.0%
P2
50.6%
51.7%
P3
47.6%
50.3%
OT
62.5%
58.8%
Final 5 min
45.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:52 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |