Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 46.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 14-10 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 79.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 86.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 83.8%
16.2%
83.8%
Beniers
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
10
(24 meetings)
14
10
Beniers
Hertl
Last 10: Beniers 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
4
2
Beniers
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
7
1
Beniers
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
7
Beniers
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (3,825)
53.9% (8,290)
-7.4%
Power Play
47.8% (360)
59.3% (1,991)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (111)
46.3% (806)
-4.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,839).
Beniers shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,945).
Home / Away
Beniers
Hertl
Home
48.9% (2,195)
55.8% (5,365)
Away
44.0% (2,101)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Beniers
Hertl
P1
47.2%
53.6%
P2
47.0%
54.1%
P3
45.7%
55.3%
OT
34.8%
46.9%
Final 5 min
46.1%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.5%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 19:48 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | OT | 04:42 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 08:22 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 01:09 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 10:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:43 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 15:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 12:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 10:49 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 02:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 01:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |