Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.8% vs Novak 42.5% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 74.2%
Defensive zone
Novak 56.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 61.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Beniers
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Beniers
Novak
Last 6: Beniers 2-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Beniers
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Beniers
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (862)
40.4% (408)
+7.9%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
45.5% (33)
+12.8%
On power play, Beniers has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Beniers is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (634).
Beniers shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Beniers
Novak
Home
52.4% (460)
42.0% (212)
Away
45.1% (470)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Beniers
Novak
P1
47.5%
41.9%
P2
50.6%
39.3%
P3
47.6%
42.1%
OT
62.5%
25.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |