Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 46.6% vs Novak 43.0% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 72.1%
Defensive zone
Beniers 57.7%
Neutral zone
Novak 55.1%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Beniers
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Beniers
Novak
Last 10: Beniers 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Beniers
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
3
2
Beniers
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
3
4
Beniers
Novak
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (3,825)
41.8% (1,568)
+4.7%
Power Play
47.8% (360)
51.5% (134)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (111)
50.0% (2)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,839).
Beniers shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Beniers
Novak
Home
48.9% (2,195)
45.1% (831)
Away
44.0% (2,101)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Beniers
Novak
P1
47.2%
43.7%
P2
47.0%
42.8%
P3
45.7%
41.1%
OT
34.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
46.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.5%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:23 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:34 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:19 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 02:48 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 17:41 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:42 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |