Mavrik Bourque vs Pavel Buchnevich
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Buchnevich on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bourque wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.5% vs Buchnevich 43.3% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 73.9%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 52.2%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 62.0%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Bourque
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Bourque
Buchnevich
Last 6: Bourque 1-5 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
2
Bourque
Buchnevich
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
3
Bourque
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (186)
40.5% (190)
+6.3%
Power Play
23.5% (17)
42.9% (14)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
30.0% (10)
+12.9%
On power play, Buchnevich has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Bourque is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (152).
Bourque shoots right. Buchnevich is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Home / Away
Bourque
Buchnevich
Home
41.5% (106)
40.7% (118)
Away
48.1% (104)
39.6% (96)
By Period
Bourque
Buchnevich
P1
40.6%
42.3%
P2
39.0%
37.5%
P3
51.7%
40.3%
Final 5 min
44.4%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |