Mavrik Bourque vs Pavel Buchnevich
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Buchnevich on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bourque wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.2% vs Buchnevich 36.0% (+11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 82.4%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 64.8%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 77.1%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 78.9%
21.1%
78.9%
Bourque
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Bourque
Buchnevich
Last 6: Bourque 1-5 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
2
Bourque
Buchnevich
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
3
Bourque
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (513)
34.5% (931)
+12.1%
Power Play
26.1% (23)
44.2% (52)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
24.3% (37)
+18.6%
On penalty kill, Bourque has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Bourque is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Bourque shoots right. Buchnevich is 36.8% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Home / Away
Bourque
Buchnevich
Home
47.1% (263)
35.6% (517)
Away
44.2% (301)
33.6% (503)
By Period
Bourque
Buchnevich
P1
42.7%
35.2%
P2
42.8%
34.8%
P3
50.2%
33.4%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.6%
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
34.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |