Frederick Gaudreau vs Michael McCarron
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs McCarron 52.1% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarron 53.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 62.7%
Neutral zone
McCarron 70.8%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Gaudreau
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Gaudreau
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
McCarron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (414)
52.8% (697)
-7.9%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
18.2% (11)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (129)
52.6% (211)
-14.6%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Gaudreau shoots right. McCarron is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
McCarron
Home
42.6% (277)
52.8% (477)
Away
43.1% (288)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Gaudreau
McCarron
P1
44.1%
56.2%
P2
44.7%
52.4%
P3
39.5%
48.7%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 04:20 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |