Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Foligno 49.9% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 63.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 76.7%
Neutral zone
McCarron 55.1%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
McCarron
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McCarron
Foligno
Last 8: McCarron 5-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
0
McCarron
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
McCarron
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
1
McCarron
Foligno
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
49.5% (291)
+3.3%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
55.8% (43)
-37.6%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
47.2% (53)
+5.4%
On power play, Foligno has a +37.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Foligno is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
McCarron
Foligno
Home
52.8% (477)
48.9% (178)
Away
51.8% (442)
50.7% (209)
By Period
McCarron
Foligno
P1
56.2%
43.0%
P2
52.4%
55.9%
P3
48.7%
50.0%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 13:42 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 13:50 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:43 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:04 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 16:58 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |