Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Sturm 53.6% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 64.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 57.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
McCarron
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McCarron
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
McCarron
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
0
McCarron
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
54.6% (271)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
54.4% (90)
-1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
McCarron
Sturm
Home
52.8% (477)
53.0% (168)
Away
51.8% (442)
56.0% (193)
By Period
McCarron
Sturm
P1
56.2%
58.2%
P2
52.4%
53.2%
P3
48.7%
52.3%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 12:58 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 07:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |