Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Donato 47.1% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 84.7%
Defensive zone
McCarron 76.5%
Neutral zone
Donato 57.0%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
McCarron
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McCarron
Donato
Last 7: McCarron 3-4 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
McCarron
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
McCarron
Donato
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
1
McCarron
Donato
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
46.8% (297)
+6.0%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
41.0% (39)
-22.8%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
100.0% (1)
-47.4%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Donato is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
McCarron
Donato
Home
52.8% (477)
45.8% (142)
Away
51.8% (442)
46.7% (195)
By Period
McCarron
Donato
P1
56.2%
49.5%
P2
52.4%
45.7%
P3
48.7%
43.4%
OT
0.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 15:35 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:26 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |