Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.7% vs Steel 50.2% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 69.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 82.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 53.9%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
McCarron
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
McCarron
Steel
Last 9: McCarron 6-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
McCarron
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
0
McCarron
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
1
McCarron
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (2,791)
50.5% (2,871)
+2.8%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
62.6% (179)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (422)
37.8% (246)
+12.7%
On power play, Steel has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McCarron is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,305).
McCarron shoots right. Steel is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,229).
Home / Away
McCarron
Steel
Home
52.2% (1,592)
50.0% (1,551)
Away
53.3% (1,705)
50.3% (1,745)
By Period
McCarron
Steel
P1
54.3%
51.9%
P2
51.6%
49.5%
P3
52.3%
49.5%
OT
50.0%
41.9%
Final 5 min
50.4%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
32.0%▼
49.0%
52.7%
Steel
46.0%▼
48.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:43 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 05:03 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 15:08 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 07:57 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 02:07 | Offensive | Sam Steel |