Michael McCarron vs Trevor Zegras
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +19.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Zegras 37.0% (+19.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 53.4%
Defensive zone
McCarron 97.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 91.2%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 89.4%
89.4%
10.6%
McCarron
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McCarron
Zegras
Last 7: McCarron 6-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
McCarron
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
5
0
McCarron
Zegras
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
33.0% (264)
+19.8%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
32.1% (56)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
50.0% (2)
+2.6%
On even strength, McCarron has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Zegras is 33.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
McCarron
Zegras
Home
52.8% (477)
35.3% (173)
Away
51.8% (442)
30.2% (149)
By Period
McCarron
Zegras
P1
56.2%
33.0%
P2
52.4%
35.7%
P3
48.7%
29.7%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 02:59 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |