Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Seguin 52.5% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Seguin 73.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 71.9%
Neutral zone
McCarron 50.4%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
McCarron
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
McCarron
Seguin
Last 10: McCarron 4-6 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McCarron
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McCarron
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
McCarron
Seguin
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
53.2% (201)
-0.4%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
60.0% (25)
-41.8%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
44.4% (9)
+8.2%
On power play, Seguin has a +41.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. McCarron is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (274).
McCarron shoots right. Seguin is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
McCarron
Seguin
Home
52.8% (477)
56.3% (126)
Away
51.8% (442)
50.5% (109)
By Period
McCarron
Seguin
P1
56.2%
44.3%
P2
52.4%
52.1%
P3
48.7%
62.5%
OT
0.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:33 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:22 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 19:15 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:11 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:06 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 08:02 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:57 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |