Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McLeod wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 58.0% vs Novak 43.0% (+15.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 67.5%
Defensive zone
McLeod 98.0%
Neutral zone
McLeod 95.8%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 90.8%
90.8%
9.2%
McLeod
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
McLeod
Novak
Last 9: McLeod 7-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
5
0
McLeod
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (2,894)
41.8% (1,568)
+17.4%
Power Play
57.4% (101)
51.5% (134)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (525)
50.0% (2)
+3.5%
On even strength, McLeod has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McLeod is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,457).
McLeod shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
McLeod
Novak
Home
58.2% (1,647)
45.1% (831)
Away
58.4% (1,873)
40.2% (873)
By Period
McLeod
Novak
P1
58.7%
43.7%
P2
59.9%
42.8%
P3
56.3%
41.1%
OT
63.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
58.3%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
58.3%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 13:13 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 04:29 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:31 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:24 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 12:32 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |