Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 79.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 60.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 68.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
McDavid
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McDavid
Zibanejad
Last 7: McDavid 2-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
3
McDavid
Zibanejad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
2
McDavid
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
53.3% (807)
-5.6%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
47.6% (42)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
46.3% (147)
+2.6%
On even strength, Zibanejad has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zibanejad
Home
50.0% (412)
49.8% (466)
Away
45.7% (394)
54.0% (530)
By Period
McDavid
Zibanejad
P1
48.0%
52.9%
P2
48.5%
51.2%
P3
47.1%
51.7%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 06:51 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |