Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs Dowd 48.6% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 68.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 65.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Zibanejad
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Zibanejad
Dowd
Last 8: Zibanejad 3-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
1
Zibanejad
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Zibanejad
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Zibanejad
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (807)
51.0% (671)
+2.3%
Power Play
47.6% (42)
0.0% (2)
+47.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (147)
41.5% (224)
+4.8%
On power play, Zibanejad has a +47.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Zibanejad shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Dowd
Home
49.8% (466)
48.2% (471)
Away
54.0% (530)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Zibanejad
Dowd
P1
52.9%
48.3%
P2
51.2%
46.8%
P3
51.7%
51.0%
OT
60.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |