Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Backlund 48.5% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 95.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 79.3%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 67.5%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 77.1%
77.1%
22.9%
Tkachuk
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Tkachuk
Backlund
Last 10: Tkachuk 8-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
9
0
Tkachuk
Backlund
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Tkachuk
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
50.4% (1,032)
+0.6%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
52.3% (107)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
40.6% (313)
+9.4%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Backlund
Home
50.0% (140)
48.7% (749)
Away
52.2% (207)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Tkachuk
Backlund
P1
54.3%
50.4%
P2
50.0%
50.1%
P3
49.5%
45.8%
OT
33.3%
30.8%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
51.3%
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 14:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 11:01 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 09:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 04:12 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:50 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |