Brock Nelson vs Mikael Backlund
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 49.0%). Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Backlund 49.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 31-18 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 55.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Nelson
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
31
(49 meetings)
18
31
Nelson
Backlund
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
6
Nelson
Backlund
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
12
Nelson
Backlund
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
13
Nelson
Backlund
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
49.7% (13,463)
-1.8%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
51.5% (1,338)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
43.9% (2,465)
-0.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,020).
Home / Away
Nelson
Backlund
Home
50.1% (5,878)
49.7% (8,621)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
48.3% (8,650)
By Period
Nelson
Backlund
P1
48.7%
48.5%
P2
48.6%
50.3%
P3
47.7%
48.4%
OT
45.6%
45.1%
Final 5 min
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 17:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 05:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |