Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Paul 52.2% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 29-26 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 50.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 57.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Backlund
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
29
(55 meetings)
26
29
Backlund
Paul
Last 10: Backlund 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
12
Backlund
Paul
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
11
6
Backlund
Paul
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
12
11
Backlund
Paul
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,463)
52.6% (3,823)
-2.9%
Power Play
51.5% (1,338)
56.2% (484)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (2,465)
46.9% (576)
-3.0%
On power play, Paul has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,020).
Backlund shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Backlund
Paul
Home
49.7% (8,621)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
48.3% (8,650)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Backlund
Paul
P1
48.5%
53.8%
P2
50.3%
51.0%
P3
48.4%
52.2%
OT
45.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:07 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:24 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |