Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Roy 51.9% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 53.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 65.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 52.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Backlund
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Backlund
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Backlund
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
51.9% (547)
-1.4%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
54.1% (37)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
53.3% (92)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Backlund shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Backlund
Roy
Home
48.1% (636)
54.0% (328)
Away
51.4% (671)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Backlund
Roy
P1
45.4%
53.5%
P2
54.1%
51.6%
P3
49.2%
51.6%
Final 5 min
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |