Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +18.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Ostlund 36.5% (+18.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ostlund 59.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 91.8%
Neutral zone
Backlund 67.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Backlund
Ostlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Ostlund
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Ostlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
1
Backlund
Ostlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostlund
0
1
Backlund
Ostlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Ostlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
32.2% (261)
+18.3%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
11.1% (9)
+40.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
33.3% (3)
+13.8%
On power play, Backlund has a +40.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostlund shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Ostlund is 28.7% vs left-shot opponents (167).
Home / Away
Backlund
Ostlund
Home
48.1% (636)
37.3% (142)
Away
51.4% (671)
25.2% (131)
By Period
Backlund
Ostlund
P1
45.4%
34.0%
P2
54.1%
32.6%
P3
49.2%
27.4%
Final 5 min
48.5%
23.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Ostlund
46.0%▲
34.5%
31.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Noah Ostlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:34 | Neutral | Noah Ostlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |