Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Monahan 52.5% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 19-15 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 81.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 77.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Backlund
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
15
(34 meetings)
19
15
Backlund
Monahan
Last 10: Backlund 4-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
8
Backlund
Monahan
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
12
1
Backlund
Monahan
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
6
Backlund
Monahan
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
53.0% (874)
-2.5%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
54.7% (161)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
47.5% (101)
-0.4%
On power play, Monahan has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Backlund
Monahan
Home
48.1% (636)
53.8% (558)
Away
51.4% (671)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Backlund
Monahan
P1
45.4%
49.5%
P2
54.1%
54.8%
P3
49.2%
52.8%
OT
55.6%
61.9%
Final 5 min
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:46 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:29 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:50 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 19:18 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:36 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 00:16 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:08 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 03:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |