Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Jarvis 46.3% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 63.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 91.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.1%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 91.3%
91.3%
8.7%
Backlund
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Backlund
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
42.6% (54)
+7.9%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
33.3% (6)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
40.0% (15)
+7.1%
On power play, Backlund has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Backlund shoots left. Jarvis is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Backlund
Jarvis
Home
48.1% (636)
43.6% (39)
Away
51.4% (671)
38.9% (36)
By Period
Backlund
Jarvis
P1
45.4%
36.0%
P2
54.1%
48.3%
P3
49.2%
36.8%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
23.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |