Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.8% vs 49.6%). Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Kozak 49.7% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kozak 51.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 62.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 52.1%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Backlund
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Kozak
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Kozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
49.3% (294)
+1.2%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
60.0% (5)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
50.0% (40)
-2.9%
On power play, Kozak has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Kozak is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Backlund
Kozak
Home
48.1% (636)
45.5% (145)
Away
51.4% (671)
52.6% (194)
By Period
Backlund
Kozak
P1
45.4%
53.4%
P2
54.1%
50.0%
P3
49.2%
44.3%
Final 5 min
48.5%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 10:21 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |