Mikael Backlund vs Zack Ostapchuk
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Zack Ostapchuk holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ostapchuk 60.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 65.6%
Neutral zone
Ostapchuk 52.1%
Result
Zack Ostapchuk favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Backlund
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Ostapchuk
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
1
Backlund
Ostapchuk
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Backlund
Ostapchuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
52.5% (320)
-2.0%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
33.3% (3)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
42.4% (59)
+4.7%
On power play, Backlund has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Ostapchuk is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Backlund
Ostapchuk
Home
48.1% (636)
49.1% (171)
Away
51.4% (671)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Backlund
Ostapchuk
P1
45.4%
50.4%
P2
54.1%
46.8%
P3
49.2%
55.1%
Final 5 min
48.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:55 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:43 | Offensive | Zack Ostapchuk |