Connor McDavid vs Mikael Granlund
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Granlund holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Granlund on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Granlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Granlund 49.5% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Granlund leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.1%
Defensive zone
Granlund 55.0%
Neutral zone
Granlund 50.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
McDavid
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
McDavid
Granlund
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
2
3
McDavid
Granlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Granlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Granlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
49.7% (493)
-2.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
58.6% (111)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
31.1% (61)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Granlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (445).
Home / Away
McDavid
Granlund
Home
50.0% (412)
54.7% (276)
Away
45.7% (394)
45.8% (389)
By Period
McDavid
Granlund
P1
48.0%
52.2%
P2
48.5%
49.3%
P3
47.1%
47.4%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
50.6%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Granlund
62.0%▲
54.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 17:20 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 18:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |