Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 48.6% vs Sturm 56.1% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Granlund 90.5%
Defensive zone
Granlund 61.1%
Neutral zone
Granlund 74.8%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Granlund
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Granlund
Sturm
Last 10: Granlund 2-8 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Granlund
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
5
Granlund
Sturm
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Granlund
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,765)
57.1% (2,719)
-8.5%
Power Play
53.0% (760)
61.3% (62)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (635)
51.0% (498)
-7.4%
On even strength, Sturm has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Granlund is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,193).
Granlund shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Granlund
Sturm
Home
51.0% (3,905)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
46.4% (4,255)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Granlund
Sturm
P1
48.8%
56.5%
P2
48.7%
54.9%
P3
48.5%
57.4%
OT
43.3%
60.6%
Final 5 min
47.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
62.0%▲
54.5%
48.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 11:30 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:13 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 05:44 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 05:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 09:24 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2 | 19:57 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |