Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 49.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Granlund 52.1%
Defensive zone
Granlund 55.1%
Neutral zone
Granlund 55.5%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Granlund
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Granlund
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Granlund
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (493)
55.7% (856)
-6.0%
Power Play
58.6% (111)
57.5% (233)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
31.1% (61)
50.0% (144)
-18.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Granlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (445).
Granlund shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Granlund
O'Reilly
Home
54.7% (276)
55.5% (616)
Away
45.8% (389)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Granlund
O'Reilly
P1
52.2%
58.1%
P2
49.3%
54.9%
P3
47.4%
53.9%
OT
45.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
62.0%▲
54.5%
49.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |