Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Marner 43.0% (+11.4%)
H2H factor
Marner leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Marner 68.7%
Defensive zone
Marner 56.6%
Neutral zone
Marner 61.1%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Duchene
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Duchene
Marner
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Marner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Marner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
4
Duchene
Marner
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
41.4% (302)
+9.7%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
40.0% (5)
+21.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
25.0% (12)
-8.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Marner is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Duchene
Marner
Home
51.7% (201)
36.6% (172)
Away
52.5% (236)
45.6% (147)
By Period
Duchene
Marner
P1
49.0%
40.8%
P2
57.1%
40.5%
P3
49.2%
41.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Marner
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 12:24 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 04:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 18:29 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 09:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |