Mitch Marner vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marner wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.7% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 50.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 54.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Marner
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Marner
MacKinnon
Last 6: Marner 3-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Marner
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
3
1
Marner
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (496)
46.1% (11,264)
-4.4%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
53.2% (1,421)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
42.8% (502)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marner is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Marner shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
Home / Away
Marner
MacKinnon
Home
38.0% (321)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
45.7% (258)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Marner
MacKinnon
P1
38.7%
47.4%
P2
41.5%
46.6%
P3
45.5%
46.1%
OT
40.0%
48.4%
Final 5 min
47.6%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |