Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.7% vs Acciari 51.2% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 72.1%
Defensive zone
Acciari 92.7%
Neutral zone
Acciari 78.2%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Marner
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Marner
Acciari
Last 6: Marner 4-2 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
1
Marner
Acciari
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
0
Marner
Acciari
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
1
Marner
Acciari
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (496)
52.8% (3,304)
-11.1%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
48.3% (87)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
47.0% (1,073)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Acciari has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Marner is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Marner shoots right. Acciari is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,196).
Home / Away
Marner
Acciari
Home
38.0% (321)
51.9% (2,139)
Away
45.7% (258)
50.7% (2,325)
By Period
Marner
Acciari
P1
38.7%
52.3%
P2
41.5%
51.5%
P3
45.5%
50.2%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |