Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 80.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 77.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 73.8%
26.2%
73.8%
Marner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Marner
O'Reilly
Last 9: Marner 5-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
1
Marner
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
3
2
Marner
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Marner
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (496)
56.2% (15,290)
-14.5%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
58.7% (3,457)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
51.4% (2,826)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Marner shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
Home / Away
Marner
O'Reilly
Home
38.0% (321)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
45.7% (258)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Marner
O'Reilly
P1
38.7%
55.6%
P2
41.5%
57.0%
P3
45.5%
55.0%
OT
40.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 1 | 06:44 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 13:33 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |