Scouting Report
Mitchell Stephens holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stephens wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephens 52.4% vs Dowd 50.7% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephens 80.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 62.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.1%
Result
Mitchell Stephens favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Stephens
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stephens
Dowd
Last 7: Stephens 4-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephens
2
0
Stephens
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
3
Stephens
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephens
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (795)
52.3% (6,036)
+2.2%
Power Play
21.4% (14)
56.1% (164)
-34.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (178)
44.1% (1,638)
+3.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +34.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Stephens is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (279).
Stephens shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Stephens
Dowd
Home
54.1% (471)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
51.3% (517)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Stephens
Dowd
P1
53.6%
51.5%
P2
50.7%
50.4%
P3
54.3%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
49.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephens
42.0%▼
52.5%
52.6%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:05 | Neutral | Mitchell Stephens |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Mitchell Stephens |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Mitchell Stephens |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 01:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 05:45 | Neutral | Mitchell Stephens |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |