Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Barron 46.8% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 81.9%
Defensive zone
Barron 88.4%
Neutral zone
Barron 55.6%
Result
Morgan Barron favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Duchene
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Duchene
Barron
Last 5: Duchene 2-3 Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Barron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
0
2
Duchene
Barron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Barron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
48.6% (381)
+2.5%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
33.3% (3)
+28.2%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
41.7% (187)
-25.0%
On power play, Duchene has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Barron is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Duchene
Barron
Home
51.7% (201)
44.4% (306)
Away
52.5% (236)
48.3% (265)
By Period
Duchene
Barron
P1
49.0%
45.5%
P2
57.1%
49.8%
P3
49.2%
43.1%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Barron
44.0%▲
41.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:58 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:00 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |