Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barron 48.0% vs Aho 51.3% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 94.4%
Defensive zone
Aho 53.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 78.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Barron
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Barron
Aho
Last 8: Barron 6-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Barron
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
5
0
Barron
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barron
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barron
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (741)
50.2% (6,646)
-0.8%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
58.9% (1,310)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (222)
46.5% (465)
-4.2%
On power play, Aho has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Barron is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Barron shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Barron
Aho
Home
45.2% (480)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
50.3% (489)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Barron
Aho
P1
48.0%
51.1%
P2
50.7%
52.1%
P3
44.7%
50.8%
OT
25.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
46.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barron
44.0%▲
41.5%
47.8%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:24 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:08 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:54 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:08 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 1 | 06:50 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |