Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Frost 56.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 53.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 82.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 60.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Staal
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Staal
Frost
Last 10: Staal 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
5
Staal
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
3
Staal
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
55.8% (745)
+0.4%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
60.5% (172)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
88.9% (9)
-46.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Staal
Frost
Home
55.4% (699)
57.3% (497)
Away
54.4% (702)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Staal
Frost
P1
55.7%
60.1%
P2
54.7%
56.0%
P3
53.4%
54.7%
OT
70.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
56.7%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 08:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 09:25 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 04:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |