Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Foligno 49.9% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 95.4%
Defensive zone
Frost 57.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 81.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 87.9%
87.9%
12.1%
Frost
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Frost
Foligno
Last 5: Frost 4-1 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
4
0
Frost
Foligno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Frost
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
49.5% (291)
+6.5%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
55.8% (43)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
47.2% (53)
+41.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Frost shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Frost
Foligno
Home
57.3% (497)
48.9% (178)
Away
56.8% (440)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Frost
Foligno
P1
60.2%
43.0%
P2
56.0%
55.9%
P3
54.8%
50.0%
OT
63.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |