Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 96.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 56.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 68.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Frost
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Frost
Carpenter
Last 7: Frost 6-1 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Frost
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
49.6% (2,027)
+0.1%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
41.5% (41)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
43.9% (467)
+11.1%
On power play, Frost has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Frost shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Frost
Carpenter
Home
51.4% (2,101)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Frost
Carpenter
P1
51.2%
49.6%
P2
51.3%
47.7%
P3
48.8%
48.0%
OT
64.9%
55.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 12:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 16:57 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:34 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 09:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 02:45 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |