Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Frost wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.3% vs Couturier 53.6% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 90.8%
Defensive zone
Couturier 71.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 64.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Frost
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Frost
Couturier
Last 7: Frost 5-2 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
4
1
Frost
Couturier
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Frost
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (745)
53.9% (792)
+1.9%
Power Play
60.5% (172)
62.9% (70)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
51.3% (234)
+37.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +37.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Frost shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Frost
Couturier
Home
57.3% (497)
51.4% (541)
Away
56.6% (429)
56.4% (555)
By Period
Frost
Couturier
P1
60.1%
56.0%
P2
56.0%
52.6%
P3
54.7%
54.3%
OT
63.6%
44.1%
Final 5 min
52.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:21 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |