Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.3% vs Nosek 48.5% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 90.1%
Defensive zone
Nosek 54.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 59.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Frost
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Frost
Nosek
Last 7: Frost 4-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Frost
Nosek
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (745)
52.0% (102)
+3.8%
Power Play
60.5% (172)
100.0% (2)
-39.5%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
29.0% (31)
+59.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +59.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Frost shoots left. Nosek is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Frost
Nosek
Home
57.3% (497)
52.0% (50)
Away
56.6% (429)
44.7% (85)
By Period
Frost
Nosek
P1
60.1%
45.0%
P2
56.0%
42.0%
P3
54.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
52.0%
43.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |