Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Nosek 53.6% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 77.3%
Defensive zone
Nosek 71.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 52.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Frost
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Frost
Nosek
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
1
Frost
Nosek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
3
Frost
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
5
6
Frost
Nosek
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
54.9% (2,710)
-5.2%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
45.8% (48)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
47.2% (428)
+7.8%
On power play, Frost has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Frost shoots left. Nosek is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,959).
Home / Away
Frost
Nosek
Home
51.4% (2,101)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Frost
Nosek
P1
51.2%
52.2%
P2
51.3%
54.1%
P3
48.8%
54.7%
OT
64.9%
75.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:32 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 05:39 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 17:41 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:39 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 02:36 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 04:20 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:23 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |