Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 49.7%). Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Johnson 49.7% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 82.3%
Defensive zone
Frost 56.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 67.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
Frost
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Frost
Johnson
Last 8: Frost 7-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
49.8% (5,396)
-0.1%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
54.6% (885)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
42.3% (707)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Frost shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Frost
Johnson
Home
51.4% (2,101)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Frost
Johnson
P1
51.2%
50.1%
P2
51.3%
50.6%
P3
48.8%
48.4%
OT
64.9%
42.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:33 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:32 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 02:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 04:14 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |