Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 39.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 44.9% vs Lafferty 47.5% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 82.0%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 53.8%
Neutral zone
Smith 62.2%
Result
Nate Smith favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Smith
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Smith
Lafferty
Last 6: Smith 1-5 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
3
Smith
Lafferty
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
2
Smith
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (112)
47.9% (1,417)
-7.7%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
45.7% (46)
+4.3%
On even strength, Lafferty has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Smith is 39.0% vs right-shot opponents (41).
Smith shoots right. Lafferty is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Smith
Lafferty
Home
34.9% (63)
47.3% (833)
Away
47.2% (53)
47.4% (814)
By Period
Smith
Lafferty
P1
36.4%
49.4%
P2
51.4%
43.1%
P3
35.4%
49.6%
Final 5 min
37.5%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
42.0%▲
40.5%
40.5%
Lafferty
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 12:43 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 09:16 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 01:58 | Neutral | Nate Smith |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:29 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |